"COVID-19 Raises Geopolitical Stakes in the Balkans"

by Srećko Latal

The paper assesses the impact of COVID-19 on different external influences, which have already been steadily increasing in recent years, in the six Western Balkan countries. It offers insights into different forms and levels of engagement by Russia, China, Turkey as well as the US and the EU, establishing a better understanding of their agendas and strategies, and also providing data for future research on and analyses of this topic. It is argued that the ongoing pandemic has intensified the competition among the global players in the region as it provided a greater space for them to exert their ambitions and further solidify their position. While China and the Gulf countries focused mainly on humanitarian and economic issues, the centre stage was eventually taken by Russia and Turkey’s renewed aggressive attitudes in the region, with Russia  being accused of being directly involved in demonstrations in Serbia and Montenegro. In addition, it is shown how the US has continued with its policy shift towards the Balkans by providing great financial support one one hand while having mixed results on the political scene, unable to help reaching a slap-dash agreement between Kosovo and Serbia.
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"The Western Balkans: Between the EU and a Hard Place"

by Srećko Latal

This paper is a continuation of the first study outlined above and it goes into further analysis of the current European Union's role in the Western Balkans. It identifies and analyses opportunities and challenges, which the EU is facing in the region as it tries to regain its leverage there. It starts from the oft-repeated premise that of all foreign actors, only the EU has the capacity to gradually stabilize and normalize the Balkans. It also examines the roots of the acute misunderstanding and miscommunication between the EU and the Balkan officials and outlines possible recommendations that could help the Union in tackling Balkan challenges. Some of the main misalignment lay in the enlargement goals and benefits (reforms vs. national identities) or in the EU's inconsistent use and complexity of its own accession criteria which are not met with political nor local support. Furthemore, It is argued that if the EU wishes to strengthen its position in the region and aid in its gradual stabilization and normalization, it will have to fundamentally change its perception of and approach to the Western Balkans. 

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"‘Our Brothers’, ‘Our Saviours’: The Importance of Chinese Investment for the Serbian Government’s Narrative of Economic Rebound"

by Tena Prelec

The paper traces the way the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has used the topic of economic assistance from abroad to build and consolidate its dominance on the Serbian political scene from 2012 to 2020. Through the analysis of domestic and international media coverage, this study argues that the construction of a narrative of economic renaissance has gone hand-in-hand with a narrative depicting economic salvation in the form of foreign friends coming to the rescue. It is shown that this role, initially played by the United Arab Emirates, was later assumed by China. It is argued that the conduit of this 'foreign assistance' activity is, in fact, the Serbian political leadership itself (in the person of current Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić), which seeks to present itself as able to offer stability and reassurance to the population, thus preserving the ‘ontological security’ of the Serbian nation. The findings of the study provide insights into why Serbian foreign policy has been, seemingly, so erratic: narrative-wise, the Serbian leadership has picked the actor that was most useful in highlighting their own nation-saving activity at any given moment.

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